![\"\"](\"https:\/\/adrianet.al\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/koronavirusi-shqiperi-tirane-770x433-1-300x169.jpg\")
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Popullsia e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb pritet t\u00eb zbres\u00eb n\u00eb 1.32 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2100, duke u tkurrur me 52% n\u00eb krahasim me vitin 2017, sipas skenarit, q\u00eb bazohet n\u00eb objektivat e zhvillimit t\u00eb q\u00ebndruesh\u00ebm. T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat jan\u00eb publikuar n\u00eb nj\u00eb studim t\u00eb revist\u00ebs shkencore nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare The Lancet, e cila ka hartuar skenar\u00ebt e fertilitetit, vdekshm\u00ebris\u00eb, migracionit dhe popullsis\u00eb p\u00ebr 195 shtete dhe territore nga 2017 n\u00eb 2100.<\/p>\n
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Studimi ka modeluar popullsin\u00eb e ardhshme, duke iu referuar skenar\u00ebve alternativ\u00eb n\u00eb funksion t\u00eb fertilitetit, migracionit dhe normave t\u00eb vdekshm\u00ebris\u00eb.<\/p>\n
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Shqip\u00ebria penalizohet nga fertliteti i ul\u00ebt, q\u00eb n\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2100 pritet t\u00eb zbres\u00eb n\u00eb 1.17 dhe migacioni i lart\u00eb. Migracioni neto modelohet n\u00eb funksion t\u00eb indeksit social-demografik, norm\u00ebs bruto t\u00eb rritjes s\u00eb popullsis\u00eb si dhe vdekjeve nga luft\u00ebrat dhe fatkeq\u00ebsit\u00eb natyrore. Raporti vler\u00ebson dhe madh\u00ebsin\u00eb e prodhimit t\u00eb brendsh\u00ebm bruto t\u00eb \u00e7do vendi dhe territori n\u00eb skenarin referenc\u00eb. Edhe n\u00eb skenarin referenc\u00eb, popullsia e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb pritet t\u00eb bjer\u00eb n\u00eb 1.97 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2011, me nj\u00eb tkurrje prej gati 30% n\u00eb raport me vitin 2017.<\/p>\n
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Parashikimet globale<\/p>\n
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Duke kombinuar skenar\u00ebt e vdekshm\u00ebris\u00eb, fertilitetit dhe migracionit, raporti parashikon q\u00eb popullsia globale n\u00eb skenarin referenc\u00eb t\u00eb kulmoj\u00eb n\u00eb 9.73 miliard\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2064 dhe m\u00eb pas t\u00eb bjer\u00eb n\u00eb 8.79 miliard\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2100.<\/p>\n
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Parashikimet referenc\u00eb p\u00ebr pes\u00eb vendet m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha n\u00eb vitin 2100 jan\u00eb India (1.09 miliard\u00eb, nga 1.38 mld q\u00eb ka sot), Nigeria (791 million, nga 206 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb n\u00eb 2017-n), Kina (732 million, nga 1.19 mld q\u00eb ka sot), the SHBA-t\u00eb (336 million, nga 325 q\u00eb ka sot) dhe Pakistani (248 million, nga 214 sot).<\/p>\n
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Gjetjet sugjerojn\u00eb se t\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb skenar\u00ebt do t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb zhvendosje n\u00eb struktur\u00ebn e mosh\u00ebs s\u00eb popullsis\u00eb globale. N\u00eb senarin referenc\u00eb, pritet q\u00eb mosha mesatare t\u00eb rritet nga 32.6 vje\u00e7 n\u00eb vitin 2017 n\u00eb 46,2 vje\u00e7 n\u00eb 2100.<\/p>\n
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23 shtete n\u00eb skenarin referenc\u00eb, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb Japonin\u00eb, Tailand\u00ebn dhe Spanj\u00ebn pritet q\u00eb t\u00eb ken\u00eb nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe se 50%, nga 2017 n\u00eb 2100; Popullsia e Kin\u00ebs pritet t\u00eb bjer\u00eb me 48\u00b70%.<\/p>\n
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Disa historian\u00eb argumentojn\u00eb se madh\u00ebsia e ekonomive p\u00ebrkthehet n\u00eb fuqi gjeopolitike. Rritja e Kin\u00ebs dhe identifikimi i shekullit 21 si kinez jan\u00eb t\u00eb lidhura me iden\u00eb q\u00eb s\u00eb shpejti do t\u00eb ket\u00eb Kina ekonomia m\u00eb e madhe n\u00eb bot\u00eb.<\/p>\n
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Edhe pse PBB (prodhimi i brendsh\u00ebm bruto) nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb ep\u00ebrcaktues i vet\u00ebm i ndikimit dhe fuqis\u00eb politike globale, \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb faktor thelb\u00ebsor. Raporti thot\u00eb se n\u00ebse k\u00ebto supozime t\u00eb skenarit referenc\u00eb do t\u00eb rezultonin t\u00eb v\u00ebrteta, Rusia dhe Brazili do t\u00eb shihnin n\u00eb r\u00ebnie relative t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb,nd\u00ebrsa Spanja dhe Italia do t\u00eb p\u00ebsojn\u00eb r\u00ebnie t\u00eb konsiderueshme, kurse Nigeria do t\u00eb rritet ndjesh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n
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Gjetjet e raportit sugjerojn\u00eb q\u00eb tendencat e vazhdueshme n\u00eb arritjen arsimore t\u00eb grave dhe qasjen n\u00eb mjetet kontraceptive do t\u00eb shpejtojn\u00eb r\u00ebnien e fertilitetit dhe rritjen e ngadalt\u00eb t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb.\/monitor.al<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Popullsia e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb pritet t\u00eb zbres\u00eb n\u00eb 1.32 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2100, duke u tkurrur me 52% n\u00eb krahasim me vitin 2017, sipas skenarit,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":34455,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12,5],"tags":[2525],"class_list":["post-34454","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-lajme","tag-studimi-popullsia-e-shqiperise-mund-te-pergjysmohet-deri-ne-vitin-2100","wpcat-12-id","wpcat-5-id"],"yoast_head":"\n